Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Granada CF2-1Valladolid

The model's most likely result happened: a Granada CF win (48%).

Granada CF vs Valladolid

  1. Granada CF48%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Valladolid25%

1.64 expected goals for Granada CF

1.23 expected goals for Valladolid

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Granada CF has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Valladolid win at 25%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.3 for Granada CF and 4.0 for Valladolid

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.9 expected

2.0 for Granada CF and 2.9 for Valladolid

  1. Over 3.5 cards72%
  2. Over 4.5 cards54%
  3. Over 5.5 cards36%

Shots

28.0 expected

16.1 for Granada CF and 11.9 for Valladolid

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

27.7 expected

12.7 for Granada CF and 15.0 for Valladolid

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls81%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls70%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.