Sunday 25 October, 11:00
Final score
Girona5-1Celta de Vigo II
The model's most likely result happened: a Girona win (64%).
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II
- Girona64%
- Draw24%
- Celta de Vigo II12%
2.10 expected goals for Girona
0.81 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Girona the clear favourite: 64% to win. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.6 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals47%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals33%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals17%It happened
- Both teams score49%
- Girona or draw88%
- Draw or Celta de Vigo II36%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.6 expected
5.1 for Girona and 4.5 for Celta de Vigo II
- Over 8.5 corners58%
- Over 9.5 corners48%
- Over 10.5 corners38%
Cards
4.9 expected
2.3 for Girona and 2.6 for Celta de Vigo II
- Over 3.5 cards72%
- Over 4.5 cards54%
- Over 5.5 cards36%
Shots
27.6 expected
15.8 for Girona and 11.8 for Celta de Vigo II
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots75%
- Over 24.5 shots64%
Fouls
24.2 expected
12.0 for Girona and 12.2 for Celta de Vigo II
- Over 20.5 fouls74%
- Over 22.5 fouls61%
- Over 24.5 fouls46%
Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.