Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Wycombe vs Burton Albion
- Wycombe43%
- Draw25%
- Burton Albion32%
1.62 expected goals for Wycombe
1.39 expected goals for Burton Albion
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Wycombe has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Burton Albion win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Wycombe attack, which scores 23% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 11.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Wycombe
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Wycombe attack+23%
- Burton Albion defence−12%
Expected goals1.62
Burton Albion
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Burton Albion attack−2%
- Wycombe defence+4%
Expected goals1.39
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Over 3.5 goals36%
- Over 4.5 goals19%
- Both teams score55%
- Wycombe or draw68%
- Draw or Burton Albion57%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.4 expected
6.7 for Wycombe and 4.8 for Burton Albion
- Over 8.5 corners74%
- Over 9.5 corners65%
- Over 10.5 corners55%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.6 for Wycombe and 2.5 for Burton Albion
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards39%
- Over 5.5 cards23%
Shots
26.8 expected
15.6 for Wycombe and 11.2 for Burton Albion
- Over 20.5 shots81%
- Over 22.5 shots71%
- Over 24.5 shots60%
Fouls
23.8 expected
11.8 for Wycombe and 12.0 for Burton Albion
- Over 20.5 fouls72%
- Over 22.5 fouls58%
- Over 24.5 fouls43%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.