Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Wigan vs Bromley
- Wigan44%
- Draw27%
- Bromley29%
1.27 expected goals for Wigan
0.95 expected goals for Bromley
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Wigan has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Bromley win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Wigan attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Bromley attack, which scores 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Wigan
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Wigan attack−25%
- Bromley defence+13%
Expected goals1.27
Bromley
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Bromley attack−20%
- Wigan defence−12%
Expected goals0.95
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals89%
- Over 1.5 goals66%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Over 3.5 goals19%
- Over 4.5 goals8%
- Both teams score48%
- Wigan or draw71%
- Draw or Bromley56%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.4 expected
6.0 for Wigan and 4.4 for Bromley
- Over 8.5 corners65%
- Over 9.5 corners55%
- Over 10.5 corners45%
Cards
4.6 expected
2.3 for Wigan and 2.3 for Bromley
- Over 3.5 cards67%
- Over 4.5 cards49%
- Over 5.5 cards31%
Shots
26.1 expected
15.2 for Wigan and 10.9 for Bromley
- Over 20.5 shots78%
- Over 22.5 shots68%
- Over 24.5 shots57%
Fouls
24.4 expected
12.9 for Wigan and 11.5 for Bromley
- Over 20.5 fouls76%
- Over 22.5 fouls62%
- Over 24.5 fouls48%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.