Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool

  1. Sheffield Wednesday38%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Blackpool36%

1.34 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday

1.34 expected goals for Blackpool

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sheffield Wednesday attack, which scores 14% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sheffield Wednesday

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sheffield Wednesday attack−14%
  3. Blackpool defence+4%

Expected goals1.34

Blackpool

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Blackpool attack+8%
  2. Sheffield Wednesday defence−9%

Expected goals1.34

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

5.6 for Sheffield Wednesday and 5.0 for Blackpool

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Sheffield Wednesday and 2.3 for Blackpool

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

28.5 expected

17.1 for Sheffield Wednesday and 11.3 for Blackpool

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

24.6 expected

11.7 for Sheffield Wednesday and 13.0 for Blackpool

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.