Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Plymouth vs Reading
- Plymouth38%
- Draw24%
- Reading38%
1.65 expected goals for Plymouth
1.73 expected goals for Reading
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Plymouth attack, which scores 41% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Reading attack, which scores 34% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.9 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Plymouth
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Plymouth attack+41%
- Reading defence−23%
Expected goals1.65
Reading
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Reading attack+34%
- Plymouth defence−5%
Expected goals1.73
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals44%
- Over 4.5 goals25%
- Both teams score57%
- Plymouth or draw61%
- Draw or Reading62%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.9 expected
5.0 for Plymouth and 4.8 for Reading
- Over 8.5 corners61%
- Over 9.5 corners51%
- Over 10.5 corners41%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.6 for Plymouth and 2.3 for Reading
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards36%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
28.4 expected
16.3 for Plymouth and 12.1 for Reading
- Over 20.5 shots86%
- Over 22.5 shots78%
- Over 24.5 shots68%
Fouls
23.2 expected
12.3 for Plymouth and 10.9 for Reading
- Over 20.5 fouls69%
- Over 22.5 fouls54%
- Over 24.5 fouls39%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.