Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster

  1. Milton Keynes Dons38%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Doncaster36%

1.29 expected goals for Milton Keynes Dons

1.29 expected goals for Doncaster

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Doncaster defence, which lets in 13% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Milton Keynes Dons

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Milton Keynes Dons attack−2%
  3. Doncaster defence−13%

Expected goals1.29

Doncaster

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Doncaster attack−9%
  2. Milton Keynes Dons defence+5%

Expected goals1.29

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.9 for Milton Keynes Dons and 4.4 for Doncaster

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Milton Keynes Dons and 2.3 for Doncaster

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

26.8 expected

14.7 for Milton Keynes Dons and 12.1 for Doncaster

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

23.7 expected

13.3 for Milton Keynes Dons and 10.3 for Doncaster

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls57%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.