Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Mansfield Town vs Notts County

  1. Mansfield Town46%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Notts County28%

1.52 expected goals for Mansfield Town

1.12 expected goals for Notts County

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Mansfield Town has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Notts County win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Mansfield Town attack, which scores 24% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Notts County defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Mansfield Town

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Mansfield Town attack+24%
  3. Notts County defence−19%

Expected goals1.52

Notts County

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Notts County attack−6%
  2. Mansfield Town defence−12%

Expected goals1.12

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.5 for Mansfield Town and 4.1 for Notts County

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Mansfield Town and 2.6 for Notts County

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

25.1 expected

15.2 for Mansfield Town and 9.9 for Notts County

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.4 for Mansfield Town and 12.9 for Notts County

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.