Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Reading2-1Barnsley

The model's most likely result happened: a Reading win (64%).

Reading vs Barnsley

  1. Reading64%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Barnsley17%

2.55 expected goals for Reading

1.09 expected goals for Barnsley

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Reading the clear favourite: 64% to win. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 11.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.0 expected

6.7 for Reading and 4.3 for Barnsley

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners51%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for Reading and 2.2 for Barnsley

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

29.7 expected

16.6 for Reading and 13.1 for Barnsley

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

24.7 expected

11.3 for Reading and 13.4 for Barnsley

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.