Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Notts County1-1Stockport County

The model gave this result 25%. Its most likely result was a Stockport County win (46%).

Notts County vs Stockport County

  1. Notts County29%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Stockport County46%

1.15 expected goals for Notts County

1.62 expected goals for Stockport County

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Stockport County has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Notts County win at 29%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

4.8 for Notts County and 5.2 for Stockport County

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.3 for Notts County and 2.2 for Stockport County

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

24.6 expected

10.2 for Notts County and 14.4 for Stockport County

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots60%
  3. Over 24.5 shots48%

Fouls

23.5 expected

12.1 for Notts County and 11.4 for Stockport County

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.