Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Cambridge United2-3Plymouth

The model gave this result 34%. Its most likely result was a Cambridge United win (40%).

Cambridge United vs Plymouth

  1. Cambridge United40%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Plymouth34%

1.47 expected goals for Cambridge United

1.37 expected goals for Plymouth

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 11.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.2 expected

6.8 for Cambridge United and 4.4 for Plymouth

  1. Over 8.5 corners72%
  2. Over 9.5 corners62%
  3. Over 10.5 corners53%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Cambridge United and 2.2 for Plymouth

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

28.2 expected

15.2 for Cambridge United and 13.1 for Plymouth

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

22.6 expected

10.8 for Cambridge United and 11.8 for Plymouth

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.