Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Blackpool1-4Mansfield Town

The model gave this result 36%. Its most likely result was a Blackpool win (39%).

Blackpool vs Mansfield Town

  1. Blackpool39%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Mansfield Town36%

1.48 expected goals for Blackpool

1.46 expected goals for Mansfield Town

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

5.6 for Blackpool and 5.2 for Mansfield Town

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

3.9 expected

2.0 for Blackpool and 1.9 for Mansfield Town

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

27.0 expected

12.7 for Blackpool and 14.3 for Mansfield Town

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

25.3 expected

12.8 for Blackpool and 12.5 for Mansfield Town

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.