Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Tranmere vs Cheltenham

  1. Tranmere37%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Cheltenham37%

1.50 expected goals for Tranmere

1.61 expected goals for Cheltenham

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tranmere attack, which scores 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cheltenham defence, which lets in 42% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Tranmere

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Tranmere attack−30%
  3. Cheltenham defence+42%

Expected goals1.50

Cheltenham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cheltenham attack+1%
  2. Tranmere defence+18%

Expected goals1.61

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.4 for Tranmere and 4.7 for Cheltenham

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.6 for Tranmere and 2.6 for Cheltenham

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

26.8 expected

15.8 for Tranmere and 10.9 for Cheltenham

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

22.7 expected

10.8 for Tranmere and 11.9 for Cheltenham

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.