Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Shrewsbury vs Gillingham

  1. Shrewsbury39%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Gillingham34%

1.44 expected goals for Shrewsbury

1.38 expected goals for Gillingham

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Shrewsbury attack, which scores 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Gillingham defence, which lets in 34% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Shrewsbury

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Shrewsbury attack−29%
  3. Gillingham defence+34%

Expected goals1.44

Gillingham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gillingham attack−16%
  2. Shrewsbury defence+22%

Expected goals1.38

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.5 for Shrewsbury and 4.0 for Gillingham

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.3 for Shrewsbury and 2.5 for Gillingham

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards52%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

24.5 expected

15.2 for Shrewsbury and 9.3 for Gillingham

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.4 for Shrewsbury and 12.9 for Gillingham

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.