Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Salford City vs Exeter City

  1. Salford City44%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Exeter City27%

1.25 expected goals for Salford City

0.89 expected goals for Exeter City

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Salford City has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Exeter City win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Exeter City defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Exeter City attack, which scores 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Salford City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Salford City attack+9%
  3. Exeter City defence−24%

Expected goals1.25

Exeter City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Exeter City attack−24%
  2. Salford City defence−14%

Expected goals0.89

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.6 for Salford City and 4.4 for Exeter City

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Salford City and 2.2 for Exeter City

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.6 expected

15.9 for Salford City and 9.8 for Exeter City

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.9 for Salford City and 12.0 for Exeter City

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.