Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Port Vale vs Rochdale

  1. Port Vale45%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Rochdale27%

1.38 expected goals for Port Vale

0.99 expected goals for Rochdale

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Port Vale has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Rochdale win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Port Vale attack, which scores 37% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Rochdale defence, which lets in 46% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Port Vale

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Port Vale attack−37%
  3. Rochdale defence+46%

Expected goals1.38

Rochdale

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Rochdale attack−15%
  2. Port Vale defence−15%

Expected goals0.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.3 for Port Vale and 5.3 for Rochdale

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Port Vale and 2.1 for Rochdale

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

25.1 expected

14.4 for Port Vale and 10.7 for Rochdale

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

22.8 expected

11.8 for Port Vale and 11.0 for Rochdale

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.