Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Oldham vs Crawley Town

  1. Oldham46%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Crawley Town27%

1.57 expected goals for Oldham

1.09 expected goals for Crawley Town

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Oldham has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Crawley Town win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Crawley Town attack, which scores 26% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Crawley Town defence, which lets in 24% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Oldham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Oldham attack−16%
  3. Crawley Town defence+24%

Expected goals1.57

Crawley Town

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Crawley Town attack−26%
  2. Oldham defence+9%

Expected goals1.09

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.4 for Oldham and 4.4 for Crawley Town

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Oldham and 2.4 for Crawley Town

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

27.6 expected

16.2 for Oldham and 11.4 for Crawley Town

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

24.5 expected

12.3 for Oldham and 12.2 for Crawley Town

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.