Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Grimsby vs York

  1. Grimsby38%
  2. Draw27%
  3. York35%

1.41 expected goals for Grimsby

1.41 expected goals for York

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the York defence, which lets in 11% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Grimsby

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Grimsby attack+5%
  3. York defence−11%

Expected goals1.41

York

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. York attack0%
  2. Grimsby defence+3%

Expected goals1.40

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.5 for Grimsby and 4.8 for York

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Grimsby and 2.4 for York

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

27.1 expected

16.1 for Grimsby and 11.1 for York

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

24.0 expected

11.8 for Grimsby and 12.1 for York

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.