Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Northampton2-0Colchester

The model gave this result 31%. Its most likely result was a Colchester win (40%).

Northampton vs Colchester

  1. Northampton31%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Colchester40%

0.79 expected goals for Northampton

1.10 expected goals for Colchester

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Colchester has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Northampton win at 31%. It expects 1.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 37% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 9.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals84%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals57%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals37%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals12%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.4 for Northampton and 3.9 for Colchester

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for Northampton and 2.2 for Colchester

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

23.2 expected

12.4 for Northampton and 10.8 for Colchester

  1. Over 20.5 shots64%
  2. Over 22.5 shots52%
  3. Over 24.5 shots39%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.4 for Northampton and 12.9 for Colchester

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.