Cheltenham vs Newport County

Cheltenham42%
Draw26%
Newport County32%

1.71 expected goals for Cheltenham

1.47 expected goals for Newport County

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Cheltenham has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Newport County win at 32%. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
Over 1.5 goals83%It did not happen
Over 2.5 goals52%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals39%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals21%It did not happen

Both teams score56%
Cheltenham or draw68%
Draw or Newport County58%
No draw74%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.8 for Cheltenham and 4.7 for Newport County

Over 8.5 corners56%
Over 9.5 corners46%
Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.5 for Cheltenham and 2.2 for Newport County

Over 3.5 cards70%
Over 4.5 cards51%
Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

24.1 expected

11.1 for Cheltenham and 13.0 for Newport County

Over 20.5 shots69%
Over 22.5 shots57%
Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

24.9 expected

13.2 for Cheltenham and 11.7 for Newport County

Over 20.5 fouls79%
Over 22.5 fouls66%
Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.