Probably Football

Matches

Cup (Russia)

Tuesday 27 October, 11:00

Final score

Spartak Moscow1-0Rubin

The model's most likely result happened: a Spartak Moscow win (64%).

Spartak Moscow vs Rubin

  1. Spartak Moscow64%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Rubin20%

2.19 expected goals for Spartak Moscow

0.70 expected goals for Rubin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Spartak Moscow the clear favourite: 64% to win. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.0 for Spartak Moscow and 4.2 for Rubin

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for Spartak Moscow and 2.4 for Rubin

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

26.2 expected

17.1 for Spartak Moscow and 9.1 for Rubin

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

27.9 expected

12.6 for Spartak Moscow and 15.3 for Rubin

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls82%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls71%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.