FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva

FC Orenburg47%
Draw23%
Rodina Moskva30%

1.84 expected goals for FC Orenburg

1.26 expected goals for Rodina Moskva

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

FC Orenburg has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Rodina Moskva win at 30%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
Over 1.5 goals82%It happened
Over 2.5 goals54%It happened
Over 3.5 goals38%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals20%It did not happen

Both teams score50%
FC Orenburg or draw70%
Draw or Rodina Moskva53%
No draw77%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.2 for FC Orenburg and 4.5 for Rodina Moskva

Over 8.5 corners59%
Over 9.5 corners49%
Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

5.9 expected

3.2 for FC Orenburg and 2.8 for Rodina Moskva

Over 3.5 cards84%
Over 4.5 cards70%
Over 5.5 cards54%

Shots

27.9 expected

16.7 for FC Orenburg and 11.2 for Rodina Moskva

Over 20.5 shots84%
Over 22.5 shots76%
Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

27.9 expected

15.8 for FC Orenburg and 12.1 for Rodina Moskva

Over 20.5 fouls90%
Over 22.5 fouls82%
Over 24.5 fouls71%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.