Tuesday 27 October, 11:00
Final score
FC Orenburg2-1Rodina Moskva
The model's most likely result happened: a FC Orenburg win (47%).
FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva
- FC Orenburg47%
- Draw23%
- Rodina Moskva30%
1.84 expected goals for FC Orenburg
1.26 expected goals for Rodina Moskva
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
FC Orenburg has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Rodina Moskva win at 30%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.7 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals82%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals54%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals38%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals20%It did not happen
- Both teams score50%
- FC Orenburg or draw70%
- Draw or Rodina Moskva53%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.7 expected
5.2 for FC Orenburg and 4.5 for Rodina Moskva
- Over 8.5 corners59%
- Over 9.5 corners49%
- Over 10.5 corners39%
Cards
5.9 expected
3.2 for FC Orenburg and 2.8 for Rodina Moskva
- Over 3.5 cards84%
- Over 4.5 cards70%
- Over 5.5 cards54%
Shots
27.9 expected
16.7 for FC Orenburg and 11.2 for Rodina Moskva
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots76%
- Over 24.5 shots66%
Fouls
27.9 expected
15.8 for FC Orenburg and 12.1 for Rodina Moskva
- Over 20.5 fouls90%
- Over 22.5 fouls82%
- Over 24.5 fouls71%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.