Probably Football

Matches

Cup (Russia)

Tuesday 27 October, 11:00

Final score (on penalties)

Fakel0-0Akhmat

The model gave this result 32%. Its most likely result was a Akhmat win (37%).

Fakel vs Akhmat

  1. Fakel31%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Akhmat37%

0.99 expected goals for Fakel

1.07 expected goals for Akhmat

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 37% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals62%
  3. Over 2.5 goals37%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.1 for Fakel and 5.0 for Akhmat

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for Fakel and 2.4 for Akhmat

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

26.4 expected

12.8 for Fakel and 13.6 for Akhmat

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

29.4 expected

17.9 for Fakel and 11.5 for Akhmat

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls87%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls78%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.