Tuesday 27 October, 11:00
Final score (on penalties)
Fakel0-0Akhmat
The model gave this result 32%. Its most likely result was a Akhmat win (37%).
Fakel vs Akhmat
- Fakel31%
- Draw32%
- Akhmat37%
0.99 expected goals for Fakel
1.07 expected goals for Akhmat
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
A very open match: no result goes above 37%. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 37% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 10.1 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals87%
- Over 1.5 goals62%
- Over 2.5 goals37%
- Over 3.5 goals15%
- Over 4.5 goals6%
- Both teams score44%
- Fakel or draw63%
- Draw or Akhmat69%
- No draw68%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
5.1 for Fakel and 5.0 for Akhmat
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
4.4 expected
2.0 for Fakel and 2.4 for Akhmat
- Over 3.5 cards64%
- Over 4.5 cards45%
- Over 5.5 cards28%
Shots
26.4 expected
12.8 for Fakel and 13.6 for Akhmat
- Over 20.5 shots79%
- Over 22.5 shots69%
- Over 24.5 shots58%
Fouls
29.4 expected
17.9 for Fakel and 11.5 for Akhmat
- Over 20.5 fouls94%
- Over 22.5 fouls87%
- Over 24.5 fouls78%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.