Charlton vs Bolton
- Charlton31%
- Draw25%
- Bolton44%
1.18 expected goals for Charlton
1.75 expected goals for Bolton
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Bolton has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Charlton win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bolton attack, which scores 32% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Charlton attack, which scores 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.9 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Charlton
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Charlton attack−19%
- Bolton defence−4%
Expected goals1.18
Bolton
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Bolton attack+32%
- Charlton defence−2%
Expected goals1.75
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals34%
- Over 4.5 goals17%
- Both teams score53%
- Charlton or draw56%
- Draw or Bolton69%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.9 expected
5.5 for Charlton and 4.4 for Bolton
- Over 8.5 corners61%
- Over 9.5 corners51%
- Over 10.5 corners41%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.9 for Charlton and 2.3 for Bolton
- Over 3.5 cards60%
- Over 4.5 cards41%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
28.9 expected
14.3 for Charlton and 14.5 for Bolton
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots80%
- Over 24.5 shots70%
Fouls
22.6 expected
12.1 for Charlton and 10.5 for Bolton
- Over 20.5 fouls65%
- Over 22.5 fouls49%
- Over 24.5 fouls34%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.