Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Bristol City vs Wolves

  1. Bristol City29%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Wolves44%

0.93 expected goals for Bristol City

1.51 expected goals for Wolves

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Wolves has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Bristol City win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Wolves defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Wolves attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bristol City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bristol City attack−3%
  3. Wolves defence−37%

Expected goals0.93

Wolves

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Wolves attack+39%
  2. Bristol City defence−20%

Expected goals1.51

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.1 for Bristol City and 5.0 for Wolves

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.7 for Bristol City and 2.5 for Wolves

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.0 expected

13.1 for Bristol City and 11.9 for Wolves

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

23.3 expected

12.1 for Bristol City and 11.2 for Wolves

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls39%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.