Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

West Brom vs Southampton

  1. West Brom30%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Southampton44%

1.06 expected goals for West Brom

1.67 expected goals for Southampton

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Southampton has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a West Brom win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Southampton attack, which scores 78% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Southampton defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

West Brom

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. West Brom attack+17%
  3. Southampton defence−40%

Expected goals1.06

Southampton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Southampton attack+78%
  2. West Brom defence−31%

Expected goals1.67

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

6.1 for West Brom and 4.2 for Southampton

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.6 for West Brom and 2.6 for Southampton

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

27.8 expected

16.6 for West Brom and 11.2 for Southampton

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

22.1 expected

11.0 for West Brom and 11.1 for Southampton

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls45%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.