Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

QPR vs Burnley

  1. QPR42%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Burnley33%

1.68 expected goals for QPR

1.48 expected goals for Burnley

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

QPR has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Burnley win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the QPR attack, which scores 28% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Burnley attack, which scores 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

QPR

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. QPR attack+28%
  3. Burnley defence−13%

Expected goals1.68

Burnley

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Burnley attack+25%
  2. QPR defence−13%

Expected goals1.48

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.3 for QPR and 4.0 for Burnley

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for QPR and 2.4 for Burnley

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

27.5 expected

17.1 for QPR and 10.4 for Burnley

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

21.0 expected

9.8 for QPR and 11.2 for Burnley

  1. Over 20.5 fouls52%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls37%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls23%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.