Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Derby vs Norwich

  1. Derby33%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Norwich43%

1.42 expected goals for Derby

1.92 expected goals for Norwich

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Norwich has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Derby win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Norwich attack, which scores 47% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Derby

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Derby attack0%
  3. Norwich defence−6%

Expected goals1.42

Norwich

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Norwich attack+47%
  2. Derby defence−4%

Expected goals1.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

4.7 for Derby and 4.1 for Norwich

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for Derby and 2.2 for Norwich

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

24.4 expected

12.7 for Derby and 11.7 for Norwich

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

22.8 expected

12.1 for Derby and 10.7 for Norwich

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.