Blackburn vs Stoke City
- Blackburn39%
- Draw27%
- Stoke City34%
1.17 expected goals for Blackburn
1.15 expected goals for Stoke City
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Stoke City defence, which lets in 23% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Blackburn defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 11.2 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Blackburn
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Blackburn attack0%
- Stoke City defence−23%
Expected goals1.16
Stoke City
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Stoke City attack+3%
- Blackburn defence−18%
Expected goals1.15
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals89%
- Over 1.5 goals68%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Over 3.5 goals20%
- Over 4.5 goals9%
- Both teams score50%
- Blackburn or draw66%
- Draw or Stoke City61%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.2 expected
5.9 for Blackburn and 5.3 for Stoke City
- Over 8.5 corners72%
- Over 9.5 corners63%
- Over 10.5 corners53%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.7 for Blackburn and 2.1 for Stoke City
- Over 3.5 cards54%
- Over 4.5 cards35%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
27.9 expected
14.3 for Blackburn and 13.7 for Stoke City
- Over 20.5 shots85%
- Over 22.5 shots76%
- Over 24.5 shots66%
Fouls
21.8 expected
11.3 for Blackburn and 10.5 for Stoke City
- Over 20.5 fouls58%
- Over 22.5 fouls43%
- Over 24.5 fouls28%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.