Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

West Ham vs West Brom

  1. West Ham63%
  2. Draw21%
  3. West Brom16%

2.58 expected goals for West Ham

0.92 expected goals for West Brom

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes West Ham the clear favourite: 63% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the West Ham attack, which scores 135% more goals than an average team. Next comes the West Ham defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

West Ham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. West Ham attack+135%
  3. West Brom defence−27%

Expected goals2.59

West Brom

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. West Brom attack+9%
  2. West Ham defence−38%

Expected goals0.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

6.0 for West Ham and 4.3 for West Brom

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for West Ham and 2.2 for West Brom

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

24.6 expected

14.0 for West Ham and 10.5 for West Brom

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots60%
  3. Over 24.5 shots48%

Fouls

22.4 expected

12.0 for West Ham and 10.4 for West Brom

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.