Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Stoke City vs Preston

  1. Stoke City52%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Preston23%

1.81 expected goals for Stoke City

0.95 expected goals for Preston

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Stoke City has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Preston win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Stoke City defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Preston defence, which lets in 18% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Stoke City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Stoke City attack+2%
  3. Preston defence+18%

Expected goals1.81

Preston

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Preston attack−13%
  2. Stoke City defence−20%

Expected goals0.95

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.8 for Stoke City and 4.6 for Preston

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.6 for Stoke City and 2.3 for Preston

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

27.9 expected

17.1 for Stoke City and 10.8 for Preston

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

21.7 expected

9.8 for Stoke City and 11.9 for Preston

  1. Over 20.5 fouls58%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls42%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.