Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham

  1. Sheffield Utd45%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Wrexham30%

1.76 expected goals for Sheffield Utd

1.39 expected goals for Wrexham

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Sheffield Utd has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Wrexham win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sheffield Utd attack, which scores 31% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Wrexham attack, which scores 22% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sheffield Utd

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sheffield Utd attack+31%
  3. Wrexham defence−11%

Expected goals1.76

Wrexham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Wrexham attack+22%
  2. Sheffield Utd defence−16%

Expected goals1.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

4.7 for Sheffield Utd and 4.6 for Wrexham

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Sheffield Utd and 2.2 for Wrexham

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

24.4 expected

14.0 for Sheffield Utd and 10.4 for Wrexham

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

22.2 expected

10.9 for Sheffield Utd and 11.3 for Wrexham

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.