Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Norwich vs Watford
- Norwich60%
- Draw22%
- Watford18%
2.38 expected goals for Norwich
0.97 expected goals for Watford
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Norwich the clear favourite: 60% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Norwich attack, which scores 44% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Watford attack, which scores 21% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 8.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Norwich
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Norwich attack+44%
- Watford defence+10%
Expected goals2.38
Watford
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Watford attack−21%
- Norwich defence−9%
Expected goals0.97
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Over 3.5 goals43%
- Over 4.5 goals25%
- Both teams score53%
- Norwich or draw82%
- Draw or Watford40%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.4 expected
4.7 for Norwich and 3.7 for Watford
- Over 8.5 corners45%
- Over 9.5 corners35%
- Over 10.5 corners26%
Cards
4.3 expected
1.7 for Norwich and 2.6 for Watford
- Over 3.5 cards62%
- Over 4.5 cards43%
- Over 5.5 cards26%
Shots
25.5 expected
14.6 for Norwich and 10.9 for Watford
- Over 20.5 shots76%
- Over 22.5 shots65%
- Over 24.5 shots53%
Fouls
22.9 expected
11.4 for Norwich and 11.5 for Watford
- Over 20.5 fouls66%
- Over 22.5 fouls51%
- Over 24.5 fouls36%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.