Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Millwall vs Derby
- Millwall48%
- Draw26%
- Derby26%
1.57 expected goals for Millwall
0.98 expected goals for Derby
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Millwall has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Derby win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Millwall defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Millwall attack, which scores 18% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Millwall
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Millwall attack+18%
- Derby defence−12%
Expected goals1.57
Derby
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Derby attack0%
- Millwall defence−28%
Expected goals0.98
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals73%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Over 3.5 goals25%
- Over 4.5 goals12%
- Both teams score51%
- Millwall or draw74%
- Draw or Derby52%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
5.7 for Millwall and 4.4 for Derby
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners53%
- Over 10.5 corners43%
Cards
4.7 expected
2.2 for Millwall and 2.4 for Derby
- Over 3.5 cards68%
- Over 4.5 cards50%
- Over 5.5 cards32%
Shots
26.6 expected
14.8 for Millwall and 11.8 for Derby
- Over 20.5 shots80%
- Over 22.5 shots71%
- Over 24.5 shots59%
Fouls
22.7 expected
11.3 for Millwall and 11.4 for Derby
- Over 20.5 fouls65%
- Over 22.5 fouls50%
- Over 24.5 fouls35%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.