Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Middlesbrough vs Charlton

  1. Middlesbrough63%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Charlton16%

2.40 expected goals for Middlesbrough

0.83 expected goals for Charlton

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Middlesbrough the clear favourite: 63% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Middlesbrough attack, which scores 66% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Middlesbrough defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Middlesbrough

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Middlesbrough attack+66%
  3. Charlton defence−4%

Expected goals2.40

Charlton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Charlton attack−16%
  2. Middlesbrough defence−27%

Expected goals0.83

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.4 for Middlesbrough and 4.3 for Charlton

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Middlesbrough and 2.4 for Charlton

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

30.9 expected

21.6 for Middlesbrough and 9.3 for Charlton

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

22.3 expected

10.2 for Middlesbrough and 12.1 for Charlton

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.