Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Lincoln vs Birmingham

  1. Lincoln41%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Birmingham33%

1.41 expected goals for Lincoln

1.25 expected goals for Birmingham

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Lincoln has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Birmingham win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Birmingham defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Lincoln attack, which scores 40% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lincoln

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lincoln attack+40%
  3. Birmingham defence−33%

Expected goals1.41

Birmingham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Birmingham attack+19%
  2. Lincoln defence−23%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

4.8 for Lincoln and 5.2 for Birmingham

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.6 for Lincoln and 2.5 for Birmingham

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

26.4 expected

12.4 for Lincoln and 13.9 for Birmingham

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

22.5 expected

10.7 for Lincoln and 11.8 for Birmingham

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.