Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

QPR5-0Swansea

The model gave this result 33%. Its most likely result was a Swansea win (40%).

QPR vs Swansea

  1. QPR33%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Swansea40%

1.05 expected goals for QPR

1.36 expected goals for Swansea

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.8 for QPR and 3.7 for Swansea

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.1 for QPR and 2.1 for Swansea

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.2 expected

14.1 for QPR and 11.1 for Swansea

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

21.0 expected

10.4 for QPR and 10.6 for Swansea

  1. Over 20.5 fouls52%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls36%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls23%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.