Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Portsmouth2-1Millwall

The model gave this result 36%. Its most likely result was a Millwall win (37%).

Portsmouth vs Millwall

  1. Portsmouth36%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Millwall37%

1.11 expected goals for Portsmouth

1.28 expected goals for Millwall

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

6.3 for Portsmouth and 4.5 for Millwall

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for Portsmouth and 2.3 for Millwall

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

27.4 expected

17.0 for Portsmouth and 10.4 for Millwall

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.2 for Portsmouth and 11.7 for Millwall

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.