Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Rubin vs Fakel

  1. Rubin36%
  2. Draw34%
  3. Fakel30%

0.89 expected goals for Rubin

0.84 expected goals for Fakel

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Fakel defence, which lets in 36% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Rubin defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 33% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rubin

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rubin attack−8%
  3. Fakel defence−36%

Expected goals0.89

Fakel

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Fakel attack−12%
  2. Rubin defence−30%

Expected goals0.84

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals82%
  2. Over 1.5 goals52%
  3. Over 2.5 goals33%
  4. Over 3.5 goals10%
  5. Over 4.5 goals3%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.4 for Rubin and 4.3 for Fakel

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.7 for Rubin and 2.6 for Fakel

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

24.2 expected

14.3 for Rubin and 9.9 for Fakel

  1. Over 20.5 shots70%
  2. Over 22.5 shots58%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

28.4 expected

11.8 for Rubin and 16.6 for Fakel

  1. Over 20.5 fouls91%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls84%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls74%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.