Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow

  1. FC Orenburg28%
  2. Draw29%
  3. CSKA Moscow43%

1.05 expected goals for FC Orenburg

1.44 expected goals for CSKA Moscow

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

CSKA Moscow has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a FC Orenburg win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the CSKA Moscow defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the CSKA Moscow attack, which scores 65% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Orenburg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Orenburg attack+25%
  3. CSKA Moscow defence−44%

Expected goals1.05

CSKA Moscow

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. CSKA Moscow attack+65%
  2. FC Orenburg defence−36%

Expected goals1.43

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.1 for FC Orenburg and 4.4 for CSKA Moscow

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

5.1 expected

2.8 for FC Orenburg and 2.3 for CSKA Moscow

  1. Over 3.5 cards75%
  2. Over 4.5 cards58%
  3. Over 5.5 cards40%

Shots

26.7 expected

13.8 for FC Orenburg and 12.9 for CSKA Moscow

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

27.6 expected

16.0 for FC Orenburg and 11.7 for CSKA Moscow

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls81%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls70%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.