Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow

  1. Lokomotiv26%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Spartak Moscow48%

1.16 expected goals for Lokomotiv

1.75 expected goals for Spartak Moscow

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Spartak Moscow has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Lokomotiv win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Spartak Moscow attack, which scores 90% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Spartak Moscow defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lokomotiv

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lokomotiv attack+45%
  3. Spartak Moscow defence−47%

Expected goals1.16

Spartak Moscow

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Spartak Moscow attack+90%
  2. Lokomotiv defence−32%

Expected goals1.75

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

4.9 for Lokomotiv and 5.0 for Spartak Moscow

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.3 for Lokomotiv and 2.3 for Spartak Moscow

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

27.6 expected

11.7 for Lokomotiv and 15.9 for Spartak Moscow

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

29.1 expected

16.4 for Lokomotiv and 12.7 for Spartak Moscow

  1. Over 20.5 fouls93%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls87%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls78%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.