Saturday 31 October, 11:00
Dynamo vs Akhmat
- Dynamo60%
- Draw23%
- Akhmat17%
1.79 expected goals for Dynamo
0.82 expected goals for Akhmat
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Dynamo the clear favourite: 60% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Dynamo defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Dynamo attack, which scores 71% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.3 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Dynamo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Dynamo attack+71%
- Akhmat defence−31%
Expected goals1.79
Akhmat
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Akhmat attack+14%
- Dynamo defence−47%
Expected goals0.82
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals74%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Over 3.5 goals26%
- Over 4.5 goals12%
- Both teams score51%
- Dynamo or draw83%
- Draw or Akhmat40%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.3 expected
5.2 for Dynamo and 4.1 for Akhmat
- Over 8.5 corners55%
- Over 9.5 corners44%
- Over 10.5 corners34%
Cards
4.4 expected
1.9 for Dynamo and 2.5 for Akhmat
- Over 3.5 cards64%
- Over 4.5 cards45%
- Over 5.5 cards28%
Shots
24.4 expected
14.5 for Dynamo and 9.9 for Akhmat
- Over 20.5 shots71%
- Over 22.5 shots59%
- Over 24.5 shots47%
Fouls
28.2 expected
15.6 for Dynamo and 12.6 for Akhmat
- Over 20.5 fouls91%
- Over 22.5 fouls83%
- Over 24.5 fouls73%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.