Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (Russia)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

FC Krasnodar1-1Baltika

The model gave this result 30%. Its most likely result was a FC Krasnodar win (45%).

FC Krasnodar vs Baltika

  1. FC Krasnodar45%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Baltika25%

1.17 expected goals for FC Krasnodar

0.88 expected goals for Baltika

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

FC Krasnodar has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Baltika win at 25%. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.3 for FC Krasnodar and 4.0 for Baltika

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.0 for FC Krasnodar and 2.8 for Baltika

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

25.0 expected

15.0 for FC Krasnodar and 10.0 for Baltika

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

29.8 expected

13.2 for FC Krasnodar and 16.6 for Baltika

  1. Over 20.5 fouls95%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls89%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls81%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.