Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (Russia)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

CSKA Moscow2-0Spartak Moscow

The model gave this result 31%. Its most likely result was a Spartak Moscow win (43%).

CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow

  1. CSKA Moscow31%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Spartak Moscow43%

1.29 expected goals for CSKA Moscow

1.68 expected goals for Spartak Moscow

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Spartak Moscow has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a CSKA Moscow win at 31%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.2 for CSKA Moscow and 5.1 for Spartak Moscow

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.9 for CSKA Moscow and 2.5 for Spartak Moscow

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

26.0 expected

13.2 for CSKA Moscow and 12.8 for Spartak Moscow

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

24.9 expected

13.3 for CSKA Moscow and 11.6 for Spartak Moscow

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.