Probably Football

Matches

Challenger Pro League (Belgium)

KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II

  1. KRC Genk II36%
  2. Draw23%
  3. KAA Gent II41%

1.62 expected goals for KRC Genk II

1.58 expected goals for KAA Gent II

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the KRC Genk II defence, which lets in 41% more goals than an average team. Next comes the KAA Gent II defence, which lets in 30% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

KRC Genk II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. KRC Genk II attack−18%
  3. KAA Gent II defence+30%

Expected goals1.62

KAA Gent II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. KAA Gent II attack−18%
  2. KRC Genk II defence+41%

Expected goals1.58

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.5 for KRC Genk II and 4.1 for KAA Gent II

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for KRC Genk II and 2.1 for KAA Gent II

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.8 expected

13.7 for KRC Genk II and 12.2 for KAA Gent II

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

26.3 expected

14.1 for KRC Genk II and 12.2 for KAA Gent II

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.