Probably Football

Matches

Challenger Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 14:00

KAA Gent II vs K. Lierse S.K.

  1. KAA Gent II34%
  2. Draw24%
  3. K. Lierse S.K.42%

1.29 expected goals for KAA Gent II

1.33 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K.

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

K. Lierse S.K. has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a KAA Gent II win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the K. Lierse S.K. attack, which scores 28% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the KAA Gent II defence, which lets in 37% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

KAA Gent II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. KAA Gent II attack−20%
  3. K. Lierse S.K. defence+7%

Expected goals1.29

K. Lierse S.K.

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. K. Lierse S.K. attack−28%
  2. KAA Gent II defence+37%

Expected goals1.33

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.3 for KAA Gent II and 4.2 for K. Lierse S.K.

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for KAA Gent II and 2.2 for K. Lierse S.K.

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

26.6 expected

13.4 for KAA Gent II and 13.1 for K. Lierse S.K.

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

26.2 expected

12.0 for KAA Gent II and 14.2 for K. Lierse S.K.

  1. Over 20.5 fouls84%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls60%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.