Probably Football

Matches

Challenger Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 14:00

AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton

  1. AS Eupen53%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Excelsior Virton23%

1.62 expected goals for AS Eupen

0.89 expected goals for Excelsior Virton

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

AS Eupen has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Excelsior Virton win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Excelsior Virton attack, which scores 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Excelsior Virton defence, which lets in 20% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

AS Eupen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. AS Eupen attack−10%
  3. Excelsior Virton defence+20%

Expected goals1.63

Excelsior Virton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Excelsior Virton attack−29%
  2. AS Eupen defence−9%

Expected goals0.89

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.5 for AS Eupen and 4.1 for Excelsior Virton

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for AS Eupen and 2.3 for Excelsior Virton

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

24.3 expected

14.3 for AS Eupen and 9.9 for Excelsior Virton

  1. Over 20.5 shots70%
  2. Over 22.5 shots58%
  3. Over 24.5 shots46%

Fouls

24.6 expected

13.1 for AS Eupen and 11.5 for Excelsior Virton

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.