Probably Football

Matches

Challenger Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 14:00

Club Brugge II vs Sporting Hasselt

  1. Club Brugge II27%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Sporting Hasselt50%

1.25 expected goals for Club Brugge II

1.65 expected goals for Sporting Hasselt

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Sporting Hasselt has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Club Brugge II win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Club Brugge II defence, which lets in 34% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Club Brugge II attack, which scores 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 8.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Club Brugge II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Club Brugge II attack−22%
  3. Sporting Hasselt defence+6%

Expected goals1.25

Sporting Hasselt

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sporting Hasselt attack−10%
  2. Club Brugge II defence+34%

Expected goals1.65

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.8 expected

5.0 for Club Brugge II and 3.8 for Sporting Hasselt

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners39%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.7 for Club Brugge II and 2.0 for Sporting Hasselt

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

24.1 expected

11.8 for Club Brugge II and 12.3 for Sporting Hasselt

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.5 for Club Brugge II and 11.9 for Sporting Hasselt

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.